Commonwealth Index

40 days to 2026-11-03

Target seat · VA-1

Robert J. Wittman

Republican

R lean

Target seat · VA-2

Jennifer A. Kiggans

Republican

Toss-up

Controls

Theme and party filter every module below

Democrat Republican cosponsorship crossed caucusInput costs · 13 sufficient

Compare

Pin two members · overlay intervals

Pin two members with sufficient scores in this theme to overlay intervals.

Forest plot

Empirical Bayes score with 95% credible interval · hover links modules

opposed axisadvanced axis-1-0.50+0.5+1Ben ClineVA-6 · n=26H. Morgan GriffithVA-9 · n=26Jennifer A. KiggansVA-2 · n=25John J. McGuireVA-5 · n=26Robert J. WittmanVA-1 · n=25Mark R. WarnerSenate · n=11Tim KaineSenate · n=11Eugene Simon VindmanVA-7 · n=26crossed caucus →James R. WalkinshawVA-11 · n=20Donald S. BeyerVA-8 · n=26Jennifer L. McClellanVA-4 · n=26Robert C. ScottVA-3 · n=26Suhas SubramanyamVA-10 · n=26

Ideal points

2PL θ with 95% HDI · all themes · gold = target seats

Donald S. Beyer poleJennifer A. Kiggans pole-3.90.03.9Robert C. ScottVA-3Jennifer L. McClellanVA-4Donald S. BeyerVA-8 · anchorJames R. WalkinshawVA-11Suhas SubramanyamVA-10Eugene Simon VindmanVA-7Robert J. WittmanVA-1 · targetJennifer A. KiggansVA-2 · anchor · targetJohn J. McGuireVA-5H. Morgan GriffithVA-9Ben ClineVA-6

2PL on raw YEA/NAY (all themes). Sign pinned so Jennifer A. Kiggans sits to the right of Donald S. Beyer. Gold stroke = target seat. R-hat max 1.005.

Score over time

Expanding-window EB · shaded 95% credible band · linked to selection

Select a member on the forest, strip, or compare to plot their expanding-window score.

Biggest mover

Trailing 90d · as of 2026-06-09

Party spread

Caucus width on this theme

-1-0.50+0.5+1DemRep

Input costs · hover to link with the forest plot · click to select. Gold = crossed caucus.

Delegation strip

District order · gold = targets

+1−11234567891011SS

District order 1–11, then Senate (S). Gold labels = 2021 target seats. Empty/small dots = insufficient for Input costs.

Target seats vs caucus

VA-1 / VA-2 across themes · tick = caucus center

VA-1 · Robert J. Wittmanvs Republican caucus EB center (tick)Input costsCompliance and reportingWorkforceAccess to capitalHealth costsTaxes and creditsVA-2 · Jennifer A. Kiggansvs Republican caucus EB center (tick)Input costsCompliance and reportingWorkforceAccess to capitalHealth costsTaxes and credits

Dot = target member EB score · vertical tick = caucus prior mean. Click a theme row to retarget the forest plot; click the panel to select the member.

Evidence density

Click a bar to change theme

075150225300300Input costs13 mbrs159Compliance and reporting13 mbrs75Workforce11 mbrs30Access to capital10 mbrs30Health costs10 mbrs30Taxes and credits10 mbrs

Click a bar to switch the forest plot theme. Hover for member count and vote depth.

Caucus crossover votes

Members who voted against their caucus majority on this theme

Signed score = 2·(share of contested votes advancing the axis) − 1. Default display is an empirical Bayes shrinkage of that share toward the member's (theme, party) caucus, with 95% credible intervals; toggle Raw for Wilson bands on the unshrunk estimate. Compare reports whether intervals overlap under current vote depth — separation is suggestive, not a formal hypothesis test. Procedural and un-adjudicated votes excluded. Sources: House Clerk EVS · Senate LIS. Full methodology.