Our average of 2026 generic congressional ballot polls, weighted by each poll’s sample size and recency and corrected for house effects
90% of polls are projected to fall within the shaded regions, combining the spread between polls with the sampling error of one poll. 10 primary polls, 14-day recency half-life, house effects shrunk toward zero. No single poll moves the average by more than 0.8 points. Updated 2026-08-16. Likely-voter offsets are priors, not yet estimated from the archive.
Tracked House seats plus VA-Sen · election 2026-11-03
VA-1
Robert J. Wittman vs Shannon Taylor
46% Dem
74 days to 2026-11-03
VA-1 crosses 50% Democratic win probability if the national environment reaches D+10.
VA-2
Jennifer A. Kiggans vs Elaine Luria
76% Dem
74 days to 2026-11-03
VA-2 crosses 50% Democratic win probability if the national environment reaches D-3.5.
VA-3
Robert C. “Bobby” Scott vs Edwin Rivera
100% Dem
74 days to 2026-11-03
VA-3 stays above 50% Democratic win probability even if the national environment reaches D-4.
VA-4
Jennifer L. McClellan vs Robert P. Murray
100% Dem
74 days to 2026-11-03
VA-4 stays above 50% Democratic win probability even if the national environment reaches D-4.
VA-5
John J. McGuire III vs Tom Perriello
61% Dem
74 days to 2026-11-03
VA-5 crosses 50% Democratic win probability if the national environment reaches D+3.5.
VA-6
Ben Cline vs Beth Macy
21% Dem
74 days to 2026-11-03
VA-6 stays below 50% Democratic win probability even if the national environment reaches D+12.
VA-7
Eugene Simon Vindman vs Doug Ollivant
97% Dem
74 days to 2026-11-03
VA-7 stays above 50% Democratic win probability even if the national environment reaches D-4.
VA-8
Donald S. Beyer, Jr. vs Tony Sabio
100% Dem
74 days to 2026-11-03
VA-8 stays above 50% Democratic win probability even if the national environment reaches D-4.
VA-9
H. Morgan Griffith vs Joy Powers
6% Dem
74 days to 2026-11-03
VA-9 stays below 50% Democratic win probability even if the national environment reaches D+12.
VA-10
Suhas Subramanyam vs Dave Beckwith
98% Dem
74 days to 2026-11-03
VA-10 stays above 50% Democratic win probability even if the national environment reaches D-4.
VA-11
James R. Walkinshaw vs Arthur Purves
100% Dem
74 days to 2026-11-03
VA-11 stays above 50% Democratic win probability even if the national environment reaches D-4.
VA-Sen
Mark R. Warner vs Bert Mizusawa
94% Dem
74 days to 2026-11-03
VA-Sen stays above 50% Democratic win probability even if the national environment reaches D-4.
senate-v0.1 · statewide model