Commonwealth Index

Are Democrats or Republicans winning the race for Congress?

Our average of 2026 generic congressional ballot polls, weighted by each poll’s sample size and recency and corrected for house effects

90% of polls are projected to fall within the shaded regions, combining the spread between polls with the sampling error of one poll. 21 primary polls, 14-day recency half-life, house effects shrunk toward zero. No single poll moves the average by more than 0.5 points. Updated 2026-09-24, covering polls through 2026-09-21.

2026 battlegrounds

Tracked House seats plus VA-Sen · election 2026-11-03

National environment (generic ballot Dem margin)

D+8.8

R+4current average D+8.8D+12

Slider at the latest generic-ballot row (or even if none is logged).

How D+8.8 is calculated

The poll average has Democrats at 46.0% and Republicans at 38.6%, with 15.4% undecided or choosing someone else.

Set the undecideds aside, and 84.6% of voters remain. Split that 84.6% between the parties:

Democrats: 46.0 ÷ 84.6 = 54.4%
Republicans: 38.6 ÷ 84.6 = 45.6%
Margin: 54.4 − 45.6 = D+8.8

Elections have no undecided option, so the forecasts use this two-party margin. That assumes undecided voters split the way decided voters already have. The generic ballot chart’s margin is smaller because it keeps undecided voters in the count. Figures are rounded to one decimal, so the result can differ from the slider by a tenth.

VA-1

Robert J. Wittman vs Shannon Taylor

48% Dem

40 days to 2026-11-03

VA-1 crosses 50% Democratic win probability if the national environment reaches D+10.

VA-2

Jennifer A. Kiggans vs Elaine Luria

78% Dem

40 days to 2026-11-03

VA-2 crosses 50% Democratic win probability if the national environment reaches D-3.5.

VA-3

Robert C. “Bobby” Scott vs Edwin Rivera

100% Dem

40 days to 2026-11-03

VA-3 stays above 50% Democratic win probability even if the national environment reaches D-4.

VA-4

Jennifer L. McClellan vs Robert P. Murray

100% Dem

40 days to 2026-11-03

VA-4 stays above 50% Democratic win probability even if the national environment reaches D-4.

VA-5

John J. McGuire III vs Tom Perriello

63% Dem

40 days to 2026-11-03

VA-5 crosses 50% Democratic win probability if the national environment reaches D+3.5.

VA-6

Ben Cline vs Beth Macy

23% Dem

40 days to 2026-11-03

VA-6 stays below 50% Democratic win probability even if the national environment reaches D+12.

VA-7

Eugene Simon Vindman vs Doug Ollivant

98% Dem

40 days to 2026-11-03

VA-7 stays above 50% Democratic win probability even if the national environment reaches D-4.

VA-8

Donald S. Beyer, Jr. vs Tony Sabio

100% Dem

40 days to 2026-11-03

VA-8 stays above 50% Democratic win probability even if the national environment reaches D-4.

VA-9

H. Morgan Griffith vs Joy Powers

7% Dem

40 days to 2026-11-03

VA-9 stays below 50% Democratic win probability even if the national environment reaches D+12.

VA-10

Suhas Subramanyam vs Dave Beckwith

99% Dem

40 days to 2026-11-03

VA-10 stays above 50% Democratic win probability even if the national environment reaches D-4.

VA-11

James R. Walkinshaw vs Arthur Purves

100% Dem

40 days to 2026-11-03

VA-11 stays above 50% Democratic win probability even if the national environment reaches D-4.

VA-Sen

Mark R. Warner vs Bert Mizusawa

95% Dem

40 days to 2026-11-03

VA-Sen stays above 50% Democratic win probability even if the national environment reaches D-4.

senate-v0.1 · statewide model