VA-4 stays above 50% Democratic win probability even if the national environment reaches D-4.
Democrats are overwhelmingly likely to win.
Jennifer L. McClellan (D) vs Robert P. Murray (R)
P(Dem)
100%
roughly 5 in 5
P(Rep)
0%
roughly 1 in 5
Dem two-party share (80%)
64%–85%
center 75%
Fundamentals prior only (no district polls in the log). Model seat-v1.1.
No history yet. Today is the first logged probability.
Same-method scores
Robert P. Murray has no prior House voting record. Record-vs-district for Jennifer L. McClellan only until Prompt 12.
Prompt 12
Gap between the voting record and the district presidential baseline lands after lean shares in races.json are filled and Prompt 12 runs.
Access to capital
Jennifer L. McClellan · n 1→1 · band width tracks n and the as-of caucus prior · last +0.86 [+0.34, +1.00]
OpenFEC totals
No FEC snapshot on disk yet.