VA-6 stays below 50% Democratic win probability even if the national environment reaches D+12.
Republicans are modest favorites, roughly 4 in 5.
Ben Cline (R) vs Beth Macy (D)
P(Dem)
21%
roughly 1 in 5
P(Rep)
79%
roughly 4 in 5
Dem two-party share (80%)
33%–54%
center 43%
Fundamentals prior only (no district polls in the log). Model seat-v1.1.
No history yet. Today is the first logged probability.
Same-method scores
Beth Macy has no prior House voting record. Record-vs-district for Ben Cline only until Prompt 12.
Prompt 12
Gap between the voting record and the district presidential baseline lands after lean shares in races.json are filled and Prompt 12 runs.
Access to capital
Ben Cline · n 1→1 · band width tracks n and the as-of caucus prior · last -0.86 [-1.00, -0.34]
OpenFEC totals
No FEC snapshot on disk yet.