VA-5 crosses 50% Democratic win probability if the national environment reaches D+3.5.
Democrats are modest favorites, roughly 3 in 5.
John J. McGuire III (R) vs Tom Perriello (D)
P(Dem)
61%
roughly 3 in 5
P(Rep)
39%
roughly 2 in 5
Dem two-party share (80%)
42%–63%
center 52%
Fundamentals prior only (no district polls in the log). Model seat-v1.1.
No history yet. Today is the first logged probability.
Same-method scores
Historical roll calls identified; awaiting human adjudication in historical_rollcall_review.csv and votes_historical_candidates.csv. Run vact historical propose after backfill.
Scored on votes from the 111th Congress; themes matched by adjudication, not identical bills. Cross-era comparison is indicative, not exact.
Prompt 12
Gap between the voting record and the district presidential baseline lands after lean shares in races.json are filled and Prompt 12 runs.
Access to capital
John J. McGuire III · n 1→1 · band width tracks n and the as-of caucus prior · last -0.86 [-1.00, -0.34]
OpenFEC totals