Commonwealth Index

40 days to 2026-11-03

National environment (generic ballot Dem margin)

D+8.8

R+4current average D+8.8D+12

Slider at the latest generic-ballot row (or even if none is logged).

How D+8.8 is calculated

The poll average has Democrats at 46.0% and Republicans at 38.6%, with 15.4% undecided or choosing someone else.

Set the undecideds aside, and 84.6% of voters remain. Split that 84.6% between the parties:

Democrats
46.0 ÷ 84.6 = 54.4%
Republicans
38.6 ÷ 84.6 = 45.6%
Margin
54.4 − 45.6 = D+8.8

Elections have no undecided option, so the forecasts use this two-party margin. That assumes undecided voters split the way decided voters already have. The generic ballot chart’s margin is smaller because it keeps undecided voters in the count. Figures are rounded to one decimal, so the result can differ from the slider by a tenth.

VA-5 probability

VA-5 crosses 50% Democratic win probability if the national environment reaches D+3.5.

Democrats are modest favorites, roughly 3 in 5.

John J. McGuire III (R) vs Tom Perriello (D)

P(Dem)

63%

roughly 3 in 5

P(Rep)

37%

roughly 2 in 5

Dem two-party share (80%)

42%–63%

center 53%

Fundamentals prior only (no district polls in the log). Model seat-v1.1.

Head to head

Same-method scores

Scored on votes from the 111th Congress; themes matched by adjudication, not identical bills. Cross-era comparison is indicative, not exact.

Access to capital

III
+0.32
n=3 · CI -0.13–+0.69
Perriello
+0.97
n=4 · CI +0.71–+1.00

Federal contracting

III
+0.86
n=1 · CI +0.34–+1.00
Perriello
+0.20
n=1 · CI -0.61–+0.86

Health costs

III
+0.32
n=3 · CI -0.13–+0.69
Perriello
+0.97
n=4 · CI +0.72–+1.00

Input costs

III
+0.99
n=26 · CI +0.97–+1.00
Perriello
-0.10
n=2 · CI -0.71–+0.56

Compliance and reporting

III
+0.89
n=14 · CI +0.72–+0.99
Perriello
+0.12
n=4 · CI -0.35–+0.56

Taxes and credits

III
+0.95
n=3 · CI +0.74–+1.00
Perriello
+0.51
n=4 · CI +0.10–+0.82

Workforce

III
+0.70
n=7 · CI +0.46–+0.88
Perriello
+0.98
n=4 · CI +0.78–+1.00

District lean

Presidential two-party Dem share, 2016–2024

43.8% Democratic in 2024R+12.4

50%201620202024

District two-party Democratic share across 3 presidential cycles, all computed on the 2021 map. Cycles before 2024 are published to whole percentages, so each carries about ±0.7pp of rounding.

Incumbent score over time

Access to capital

-1-0.50+0.5+12025-042025-06

John J. McGuire III · n 1→3 · band width tracks n and the as-of caucus prior · last +0.32 [-0.13, +0.69]

Fundraising snapshot

OpenFEC totals

John J. McGuire IIIincumbent · R
$1.8M receipts · $524k cash · 40% small-dollar
Tom Perriellochallenger · D
$2.1M receipts · $1.5M cash · 11% small-dollar