senate-v0.1 · statewide model
94% Democratic · 6% Republican
Central estimate 61.5% of the two-party vote, 80% interval 52.1–70.9%. Fundamentals only — no state polls in the log.
Fit on 244 races across 8 cycles. Leave-one-cycle-out Brier 0.0885 against 0.1232 for lean-plus-uniform-swing and 0.1516 for always-incumbent. The House seat model does not score this race — it has no statewide baseline to feed it.
Same-method scores
Bert Mizusawa has no prior House voting record. Record-vs-district for Mark R. Warner only until Prompt 12.
Prompt 12
Gap between the voting record and the statewide presidential baseline lands after lean shares in races.json are filled and Prompt 12 runs.
Access to capital
No contested votes for this member on Access to capital. Switch theme or pick another member.
OpenFEC totals
No FEC snapshot on disk yet.