VA-1 crosses 50% Democratic win probability if the national environment reaches D+10.
The race is a toss-up.
Robert J. Wittman (R) vs Shannon Taylor (D)
P(Dem)
46%
roughly 2 in 5
P(Rep)
54%
roughly 3 in 5
Dem two-party share (80%)
39%–60%
center 49%
Fundamentals prior only (no district polls in the log). Model seat-v1.1.
No history yet. Today is the first logged probability.
Same-method scores
Shannon Taylor has no prior House voting record. Record-vs-district for Robert J. Wittman only until Prompt 12.
Prompt 12
Gap between the voting record and the district presidential baseline lands after lean shares in races.json are filled and Prompt 12 runs.
Access to capital
Robert J. Wittman · n 1→1 · band width tracks n and the as-of caucus prior · last -0.86 [-1.00, -0.34]
OpenFEC totals